Why are Europe and Germany so deeply committed to support militarily the Ukraine in the Russian/Ukraine war and not more determined to support the peace efforts of President Trump and others, even if ultimately the real danger emerges that this can lead to Europe’s self-destruction? This question, which was raised by people from the Globel South several times in private discussions with the author, cannot be easily answered.
In order to give a rational answer, one should look at the dramatic events that unfolded in the last days. On June first Ukrainian drones attacked five Russian military airports. These included airfields in Murmansk, in Irkutsk (Siberia), in Ivanovo, Ryasan and in Amur. It was the first attack against Siberia since the beginning of the war. According to Ukrainian reports the operation was conducted by the Ukrainian Secret Service SBU. It was stated that 117 FPV drones were secretly put on Russian territory; they were put in containers that were placed on trucks and then activated by remote control systems from outside, in order to hit those targets of the Russian nuclear bomber fleet, that included among others TU 95 bombers. At the same time terrorist attacks occurred in the region of Bryansk where a highway bridge collapsed and a train got derailed. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy gloated about this action as a “brilliant” operation being echoed by a ‘euphoric’ western press. In the hope that they could derail the second round of negotiations in Istanbul (June 2nd), they however didn’t get what they wanted. Fact is, that in Istanbul memoranda from both sides were distributed and discussed. While the Russian negotiators insisted on principles such as neutrality, withdrawal of troops in the occupied areas for Ukraine, the Ukrainian side rejected this as inacceptable underlining that they have the right to choose alliances with EU and NATO as they desire. There was again agreement on a wide range exchange of prisoners and a possible date for the next round, which may be end of June in Istanbul.
Former CIA head for Russia urges direct talks between Trump and Putin
Dr. George Beebe (Ex – CIA director for Russia Analysis and at present director for Grand Strategy at Quincy Institute) in an interview (June 3) with Prof. Glenn Diesen, underlined that Trump should not walk away from the negotiations, as he may feel tempted now. He qualified the drone attack on Russia’s nuclear forces (“possibly with NATO support”) as “extremely dangerous,” and qualified the recent attacks against Russia’s nuclear bomber fleet as a clear violation of the New Start Treaty between USA /Russia, which mandates that these bombers on each side have to be openly displayed. He stated that the Ukrainians took advantage of this open display. The bombers were still parked not in nuclear strike protective bunkers, but in open-air, according to obligations under the New START Treaty with the US. The Trump administration has claimed it was not informed by Ukraine in advance.
Beebe underlined that the US was the most important source of intelligence for Ukraine, delivering reconnaissance and targeting data, aside the fact that US AWACs and airborne surveillance and reconnaissance flights are occurring over European space. A “walk away” would make Ukraine vulnerable against Russian missile strikes. “We are in a situation where the Russians could take advantage in terms of their air superiority. What would be the reaction of the West? They would say unlike Biden did, that Trump abandons the allies and Ukraine. This would be catastrophic. The pressure on the White House is overwhelming. “The other option is that we could pursue relations with Moscow, even if there is no immediate ceasefire.” Yet, he cautioned that most of Washington is against détente and Senator Lindsay Graham is a clear speaker for those who reject détente with Russia. (During his actual trip to Europe he called for heavy sanctions against Russia and its allies, “to punish Putin”.)
According to Beebe more focus should be given to the “real underlying geopolitical conflict between the US and Russia”, i.e. discussing the European security architecture in which also Russia sees its place. Beebe pointed out that last year Russia revised its nuclear doctrine. “ An attack by a non- nuclear nation could be ground for Russia’s nuclear use. They moved the red lines quite explicitly.” According to Beebe Ukraine did the operation with US support. “I don’t think that a nuclear response from Russia is inevitable. I think that the two presidents have to talk to each other,” Beebe said.
General (ret.) Harald Kujat: “ A highly risky game”
The former chairman of the NATO -Military Commission, General (ret) Harald Kujat, on June 2nd gave a short interview to the German Online Magazine “NachDenkSeiten” which is known for its precise and critical line against German Mainstream Media. The interview was conducted by Hungarian Journalist Eva Péli from Berlin. Kujat was asked about his evaluation concerning the recent Ukrainian Drone attack against Russian strategic Bombers. He responded that this “coup” by the Ukraine, that was planned for a year and a half, will not have any significant effect on the situation at the frontline and Ukrainian Defense against Russian air attacks. Even if the attempt is made to create the impression that this could change the situation, “in reality the military situation of Ukraine is increasingly worsening,” Kujat said. He underlined that the attacks were directed against Russia’s e intercontinental- strategic bomber fleet and that it is still not clear how many airplanes were destroyed (Ukrainian Military while speaking about 41 damaged machines, had to correct this number. In reality it is no more than 9 to 12 airplanes. E.H.) It may limit the capacity to send cruise missiles against Ukraine but overall, according to Kujat, “this has no strategic effect.”
Kujat pointed out that already before, there had been Ukrainian attacks against Russia’s strategic Bomber fleet: at the base in Engels near Saratov and that there were also two attacks against the Russian Radar Early Warning System, which could have destabilizing effect on the strategic relations between the two superpowers US and Russia. He further reasoned that with the events on June 1rst it may be that Ukraine with this operation, tried to “provoke a sharp Russian reaction” that would lead to a western intervention. “That would be a dangerous development.” He added that one should keep in mind that near the airfield for the Russian strategic bomber fleet there are also nuclear weapon depots.” Even if well protected, the risk exists that a misguided drone could hit such a depot. In other words, “it’s a highly risky game which is played.”
According to Kujat, one should also keep in mind that the attack occurred, while coinciding with the second-round negotiations to take place in Istanbul between Russia and Ukraine. A closer look at these negotiations showed that Russia is interested in “real” negotiations, Kujat underlined. “It was Russia that proposed such direct negotiation and demanded that both sides would formulate their position in a written document, which indeed happened. Ukraine may have expected that Russia would cancel the negotiations which it didn’t do.”
Kujat expressed confidence that there will not be a nuclear exchange between Russia and USA. The fact that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergej Lavrov called each other before the start of the negotiations June 2nd , “indicates that the US will accompany such negotiations further,” Kujat said.
He emphasized furthermore that according to the NEW START Treaty between US and Russia, each side is obliged to put the strategic bombers at a specific airport, making sure that they are “visible” for the agreed upon mutual inspections. The purpose of this is “verification”, whether the treaty is maintained, and this is part of the mutual confidence building. He found it plausible that the Ukraine was offered western satelite reconnaissance data.
In terms of a potential Russian reaction Kujat emphasized that it will not react in the same way, but most probably Russia will intensify its attacks on the battle field and reinforce the air attacks against Ukrainian defense lines. Kujat is convinced that both the US and Russia as nuclear powers have an interest to “prevent a nuclear exchange”. Therefore, it is important that they have a “nuclear risk reduction Center” that allows deescalating measures.
Brigadier General (ret.) Erich Vad: Having Ukraine in NATO is an absolute no- go!
In another interview Erich Vad, Brigadier General (ret.) and former military advisor to Chancellor A. Merkel with Dr. Johannes Klotz (publisher), Vad was critical about the fact that so many mistakes were made in German politics. He noted that Germany has a “particular responsibility to serve as middle power” that is facilitating both the dialogue with the US and Moscow; a dialogue that is based on the principle of the German constitution, which demands that peace be preserved.”
In the interview Dr. Klotz mentioned the arguments according to which people say that the Russian army doesn’t get ahead very much, that it is extremely slow. That the war is now a war of drones, where not so many tank -assaults count. Hence the war of drones has however changed the battlefield and created a new situation.
In his response General Vad underlined that he would stick to US intelligence sources, whereby it’s an “absolute no- go to have Ukraine in NATO.” Talking about the war in Ukraine he said that there was no full invasion by Russia. It was the attempt for a “regime change” in Kiew which failed however, given the fact that the Americans gave Ukraine all their data and the Russians had to put their forces on a new stand. He also talked about the situation in Europe, the Baltic states lacking operational depth. The so called Lithuanian German brigade which has now only 400 men is still far from becoming operational. Above all he put emphasis on the role of the city of Wiesbaden in Germany in the ongoing Ukraine/ Russia war: “Germany is now t h e logistic hub for Ukraine in the war with Russia. All reinforcements go via Germany, which has also the US-Africa Command based in Stuttgart,” Vad stated. Vad emphasized again that to have Ukraine in NATO is an absolute “no go.” The Russians have been saying this since 2008.”
He also mentioned that several days ago he had been at a forum in Prague where he also met the US political scientist Prof. John Mearsheimer. “We were both in agreement that in terms of the Ukraine war,” the prehistory of this (US military sites and N ATO expansion) made Russia “overreact.” When “I was in the Kanzleramt and also 2008 at the Bukarest NATO summit, Chancellor Merkel changed the action plan for Ukraine and Georgia’s NATO entry, yet due to pressure from all sides, it left open the “perspective” for an eventual entry one day.
He also underlined that in 2008 the majority of the Ukraine people was a g a i n s t entry into NATO. Russia made clear that entering NATO would mean war, already by that time. “We got the war earlier in the year 2022.” And we argued then, that “Ukraine can choose the alliance as it desires.” But for “strategic” reasons this is not possible! Today “we only talk about International Law, the Law of freedom, but we exclude the “strategic fact.”(!)
Vad emphasized that we should be careful not to have war with Russia. “We should have military strength, yet at the same time have dialogue with Moscow. We must revitalize this.” “The Harmel- Military Doctrine from the 60ies was always based on the combination of military strength and dialogue at the same time. In the last 3 years however, we only talked about sending more weapons and closed off against dialogue. Vad pointed out that the new American administration forces us to reflect about our role.
(June 4 2025)
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